SELECT state, args->'params'->'inbox' FROM oban_jobs WHERE queue = 'federation_outgoing' AND args->'params'->>'inbox' IN ['list', 'of', 'values']
replace the lidt with whatever valies you want. the double arrow I added converts json to text and that might be your problem since it was comparing a json value to a list of strings.
That is assuming that the value you want to filter on is the inbox value in a json object structured like this:
{
"params":{
"inbox”:"filter on this”
}
}