Markets are efficient hypothesis.
If markets are efficient, there is no edge to be had and no one will ever make money trading except for betting.
If markets are not efficient, there is edge to be found.
But before you start trading - to you and me - non-specialists, markets are efficient. The edge is on the other side of the order. We are the inefficiency.
Do not trade.
Markets in commodities are efficient. That's why producers of consumer goods try to break out of their commodity label. Many shampoos don't say "shampoo" on them anymore as those life style liquids can be sold for a multiple the price of a shampoo.
I was reading Soros' book, and he explains it in terms of his world, but it gave me an insight. Markets approach efficiency as a limit. They are never efficient, they are never done getting priced in. the facts on the ground are always real in the moment, but the information doesn't propagate as fast; there's latency. In some situations that latency is great enough that it can be capitalized on. Generally speaking, if you can glean any information from the future and have information assymetry you can pry alpha from the either.
