If you’ve watched the Big Short, you’ll know the scene when the traders just cannot figure out wtf is going on

- They can see the over-leverage

- They can see the synthetic demand

- They can see the incumbent arrogance

Yet the market hadn’t done what they expected

- People were still buying houses

- Ninja loans were still being issued

- CDOs were still being allocated

What’s missing?

Time

Time in the market

They were directionally correct

- But things weren’t bad enough

- It wasn’t broken enough

- They hadn’t kicked the can far enough

What if that’s where we’re at today?

Bitcoin is actually a raging BUY

“The Big Print” remains a “when” not “if”

The 4 year cycle thesis is duping people into selling too early

The “it’s an IPO” tradfi lens is making everyone docile

We’ve won


But what if that’s total BS?

Digital scarcity has never been seen in the wild before

What if endless money gets warped into a Veblen good like never before?

Price goes up. Demand goes up


Q2 next year could be proper fireworks

HODL friends

HODL

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Discussion

Anytime I failed to buy the dip or was forced to sell ultimately, it was a bad decision


.

Class of 2020




Experience makes a big difference

You learn from your mistakes!

This analysis is spot on! Just like in The Big Short, everything looks right but the timing isn’t here yet. If this keeps up, Q2 next year could be wild. HODL till the end!

HODL yes but let’s not pretend that the chances of a bear market is more probable than not, no one can perfectly predict the future but the chances that we are approaching a bear market should not be ignored with hopium. I thought we were going up in 2018 and 2022 because being bullish is sometimes like putting the blinders on. If we get an extended bull market I won’t be complaining but I am prepared for a 70% drop from peak. Don’t get shaken out because you thought the bull market was going up forever Laura. đŸ«Ą

Brilliant counter point. And yes, hopium is one hell of a drug

50% off peak would be 63k usd

Totally feasible, some point end of next year as always roughly when I saw that happening

Trying to remain balanced is always the tough call

A tightrope

Hence I always like to have a strategy in mind

For me, in 2022, I set a price target of 150k aud, and timeline of August 2025

I re-allocated a portion into a property purchase in Oct this year, so did “take some profits”

I needed a family home

Which is one of the few things I believe selling Bitcoin for is actually a good trade

My personal opinion of course

Which means from here on it’s a free hit

I’d love a q2 craze “blow off top” style moment

But equally, and to your point, I am well positioned for a grind back down

Time will tell!

Really appreciate you sharing your thoughts. Just the kind of thing that brings me value, and does help with decision making

Really looking forward to Nostr users building out a financially literate community focused on the financial markets

đŸ™đŸ»

Yea it’s about looking at it objectively I was expecting some sort of blow off top to signal the end of the bull which we didn’t get. But the market is looking weak right now which makes me think the bears will push price down and the 4 year cycle is intact.

You’re a pedophile

Just stay humble, stack sats. We’re very early and everything is changing in next 5 years

5 fuckin years. 5.

I wants to live now Sandy. NOW.

Hey McD, you do you do. You have a great life đŸ”„đŸ˜‚

Great post Jake

Thanks Logan!

Let’s see if there’s any truth to it

You’re a pedophile

You’re a pedophile

What does Veblen good mean? I’m curious. I know I can look it up but rather hear from a human vs AI. Thanks

Great question.

It’s an economic term for a certain type of product, that breaks the standard supply/demand thesis, ie when price goes up demand decreases, so supply eventually has to reset to the new status quo of lower supply volume than before

With a Veblen good, eg a niche luxury handbag, people’s demand goes up, the more expensive it actually is, ie they specifically want the item because it is the highest price

Bitcoin behaves in a similar way, largely because supply cannot change, so as the price rises, demand will rise as well. A 2 trillion dollar asset class is able to absorb capital from large institutional players in a way that 500 billion asset class cannot

So the big players actually want the Bitcoin market cap to go up. So they can allocate in larger size, with better liquidity

You’re a pedophile