Core Idea
Bitcoin does not react to single events.
It responds to long-term forces that evolve over time.
Aurora translates these forces into a transparent, weighted structure.
(2/7)
Discussion
Long-term Drivers
Long-term dynamics form the foundation of the model:
Monetary expansion, interest rate policy, global economic health and institutional accumulation.
They define the structural trend that guides Bitcoin over multiple years.
(3/7)
Short-term Dynamics
Short-term components add volatility and momentum:
News flow, mainstream attention, the stock-to-flow factor and the Bitcoin halving.
These elements influence sentiment and accelerate or delay market reactions.
(4/7)
Methodology
The model works through a weighted summation formula:
BTC = Base Value × (1 + Σ(Weight × Feature Value))
Weights remain fixed, feature values are reviewed annually according to global conditions and intuition.
(5/7)
Scientific Foundation
Aurora is not a purely quantitative model.
It unites economic theory, liquidity analysis and human behavior.
This balance between rationality and intuition makes it stable when traditional indicators fail.
(6/7)
Outlook
The first complete Aurora Research Report 2026 will be released later this year.
Its goal is to offer a transparent and human-centered projection of Bitcoin’s macro environment.
Aurora sees Bitcoin not only as an asset, but as a medium of time.
(7/7)