Great post. Quite a dilemma. Does anybody have that copy of the 2023-style playbook laying around? We can send it off to them so they don’t go and do anything stupid!
The Fed has a dilemma, almost a race, between two things as they raise rates here.
1) Raising rates generally results in tighter borrowing standards on a lag. This can reduce lending-driven money creation and lead to disinflationary demand destruction around the margins.
https://void.cat/d/LciK171UhVRj6yZuNHk2u7.webp
2) At high public debt levels, raising rates also increases federal interest expense, which increases the fiscal deficit, which is a source of ongoing inflationary stimulus into the economy.
https://void.cat/d/FX7vWUrUF4kiNidN1g5PQ3.webp
In the 1940s, inflation was fiscal-driven and public debt was high.
In the 1970s, inflation was mostly lending-driven and public debt was low.
Currently, the Fed is using a 1970s-style playbook to deal with 1940s-style fiscal-driven inflation.
Discussion
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