WEEK 9 OBSERVATIONS
Sometimes you just have to make peace with reality, no matter how much you wish it were otherwise.
The Giants are not a top-31 team this year.
The Daniel Jones era is over. He more or less went down the David Carr career path, and the Giants need to pick a quarterback in next year’s draft, Jones’ contract notwithstanding.
Saquon Barkley will never have the career I had hoped for him. His rookie year will be by far his best, as circumstances and health never again cooperated for him to showcase the extent of his talents over a full season.
Sometimes the truth hurts, but as a Giants fan I have a healthy pain tolerance. (Jets fans are like the guy on PCP the police need to tase 10 times.)
I went 4-1 ATS on my “Normal” picks, running my record to 19-5-1 over the last five weeks. The game I lost? The Saints -7.5 because Blake Grupe couldn’t hit a 47-yard FG, and the Saints got the first down on the penultimate series to run out the clock, rather than settling for the spread-clinching chip shot. Shoulda, woulda, coulda. At least they delievered in Survivor after a bit of a sweat. My “Ugly” picks went 3-2.
Taysom Hill is one hell of a TE, with 52-rushing yards, a passing TD, four catches and a receiving TD. It’s insane the advantage the Saints and Eagles have in short yardage, when other teams (like the Bengals and Chiefs) are passing on 3rd and 4th and 1. (Actually the Saints got stuffed on 4th-and-1 once themselves when for God knows what reasons they let Derek Carr run the sneak instead of Hill.)
D’Onta Foreman is a top-15 pure rusher, but for some reason he was inactive for half the season.
The Dolphins made a run in the second-half, but they mostly just beat up on weak teams and lose to the good ones.
Tua is pretty good, but his concussion history causes him to slide so early on his scrambles he leaves a lot of yards on the table. It’s good to get the ball out of your QB’s hands to protect him, but it’s tough to win with one who can *never* expose himself to contact for extra yards.
Odd the Dolphins kicked the PAT after scoring their second TD to cut the lead to 21-14. Thought Mike McDaniel was Mr. Analytics.
Rashee Rice is the only above average receiver on the Chiefs.
I feel sorry for the celebs (especially Travis Kelce) doing the Pfizer ads. The ignominy will stay with them forever.
The Chiefs called a pass play on third and half a yard, when a first down would have sealed the win, and failed to complete it. As I mentioned, what a huge disadvantage relative to the Eagles who get the first down automatically in those circumstances.
I lost Darren Waller in three leagues and had George Kittle on bye in the other two. So I picked up Cade Otton in two, Hunter Henry in one and Jonnu Smith in the other. Only the Kyle Pitts team suffered as a result, and even he didn’t do that badly.
I’m not going to pile on Arthur Smith, and I don’t think it’s relevant who his father is. But for the love of God, could he please get Bijan Robinson the ball before I end up shelling out for steaks?
The Texans were headed for an ATS push before they *wisely* kneeled down on the PAT after their game-winning score.
Don’t accuse me of burying the lede in that game, as my push-to-loss on the kneel-down is the lede. C.J. Stroud also threw for 470 yards, five TDs and no picks. The last drive was some Joe Burrow/Patrick Mahomes shit, where the ball is finding the receiver somehow, on time and perfectly placed, with the clock running out. The Panthers GM should be on suicide watch after that performance. Your career can’t survive passing up the elite QB.
The AFC now has the following quarterbacks for the foreseeable future: Mahomes, Burrow, Stroud, Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert and Tua. Herbert’s style reminds me more of Dan Marino, but he’s destined for Philip Rivers’ career.
I finally got to watch Victor Wembanyama — obvious he’ll be one of the best basketball players of all-time if his body can hold up. A freak among freaks.
I often see teams opt for the QB sneak and runs into the teeth of the defense on 2nd-and-1. Joe Burrow even got stuffed on one such attempt last night, and the Bengals ended up taking penalties and punting after that. Even an imbecile would prefer all his drives start on 2nd-and-1 rather than 1st-and-10, so why call a play to move the ball two feet further up the field to make that trade? Seems like a case of coaches overvaluing the success (yes, we made a first down!) rather than considering the actual results of it.
My comp for Josh Allen is John Elway. Remember Elway never won anything until he was just a caretaker, and while he made it to Super Bowls before that, he was in the softer conference. Put Elway in the NFC with Joe Montana/Steve Young, the Giants, Cowboys, Bears and Redskins, and he’d probably have made a lot of early-round playoff exits too. Allen is Elway, but in the harder conference.
Joshua Dobbs is a player. He has massive fantasy QB upside if and when Justin Jefferson gets back too.
My fantasy teams are bad this year because I was relying on Bijan Robinson, Waller, Chris Godwin, DK Metcalf and Christian Watson as my main overlapping players. Watson in particular looks lost, though I blame that mostly on Jordan Love, who’s now as ironically named as Andrew Luck.
Cooper Kupp looked like a top-five pick when he returned, but without Matthew Stafford, forget it. He had fallen off even with Stafford though too.
Why are the Patriots even fielding a team this year? What is their purpose?
The Ravens have destroyed two first-place teams (Detroit and Seattle), but for some reason I’m still not a believer.
The Cowboys are like the Dolphins — dominant against weak teams, but not up to the task against good ones. That game actually ended perfectly for me as I had Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb going, and the Eagles minus three. The Cowboys completed a 20-yard pass to Lamb with no timeouts, so I got credit for the play and sealed the cover as time expired.
I don’t have any Tony Pollard, so I don’t mind, but what a bust he’s been for a completely healthy player on a high scoring team. He was drafted near the 1-2 turn, and his 16-game pace is 240-948-4, 58-380-0. As I said, the guys I targeted have also been disastrous, so I really shouldn’t talk, but it does bring me some small measure of solace to see it.
