I'm perhaps more interested in seeing how accurate polymarket is than the actual election result.
Discussion
it was surprisingly good with swing states last election
I didn't even realise it was around last election!
yeah, that's the most interesting aspect of the elections
To know if it's accurate you first have to know what it's measuring. I'm not sure.
Not saying it's not the most interesting one. But for example how is sentiment affected by the media?
polymarket cannot be accurate or inaccurate. it doesn't tell you what will happen. it tells you what its users think will happen. that's all it does.
Sure, but most people are saying trump will win the election. I want to see if most people using polymarket are correct.
It is also saying most users think he will lose the popular vote.
A, yes. More accurately, I would like to see if majority opinions on polymarket come about.
And interestingly it’s mostly people not voting in the actual election, right? I thought it’s not technically open to people in the USA.
Oh, I assumed they were mostly Americans. Probably Americans with vpns lol. I didn't know it wasn't allowed
That’s my assumption too, and then maybe that demographic skews towards the candidate the bettors imagine will pump their bags more?
I live in the US and I've used it. just the frontend is a website that geoblocks the US. it doesn't have any heavy KYC or anything and it's trivial to get around. there is no way of knowing how many users are from the US.
yeah, weird, via Bloomberg 4 days ago 