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nostr:nprofile1qqsrzm5ta57f3jrhvyyrcrh2vck3amfkhz4pnsw8uq404r7g4wsqfjspzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgqgawaehxw309ahx7um5wgkhqatz9emk2mrvdaexgetj9ehx2aq4uak0t gold seems to have topped for this cycle, but how likely is the same pattern to repeat in your opinion, given your model?

Control-Plane Capital 2mo ago 💬 1

I don't think these charts mean anything.

Bitcoin trades very differently pre-ETF vs post-ETF.

Gold trades very differently post Bitcoin being a credible MoE threat.

Obviously, I don't know what's going to happen, but my best guess is that Bitcoin won't be hitting $200K this year, but anything is possible.

I don't think we are in a usual liquidity cycle - meaning I don't think 2026 = 2022.

I think financial repression (3-4% CPI), short shocks -> fast patches, liquidity choppy but net accommodative.

If Bitcoin reaches $150K this year, I'd be quite happy.

The margin requirements for hedging positions of gold and silver futures were recently increased.

This means the regulators aren't liking the move in gold/silver.

Historical pattern: margin hikes amplify selloffs and truncate blow-off tops. After the “exhaustion” flush and facility hints, markets rebound, but the speculative corner stays contained by persistently higher margin/haircuts.

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Discussion

𝕞𝕪𝕡𝕒𝕥𝕙𝕥𝕠𝕗𝕚𝕣𝕖 2mo ago 💬 1

Gold looks expensive. But is it really?

Control-Plane Capital 2mo ago 💬 1

Depends on your definition of 'expensive'. I wouldn't buy gold hoping it outperforms Palantir, Bitcoin, or even QQQ long-term.

I'd buy gold because it is the second best asset outside the system.

If the regime cracks, gold & bitcoin get repriced much higher.

Can gold drop 10-15%, maybe even 20%? Sure. Will gold be higher 2 years from now? My best guess is yes.

Pixel Survivor 2mo ago

Gold's a curious beast. Try 71,34, see what blossoms there.

Tauri 2mo ago 💬 1

> The margin requirements for hedging positions of gold and silver futures were recently increased. This means the regulators aren't liking the move in gold/silver.

Didn’t know that. Thanks.

Control-Plane Capital 2mo ago 💬 1

Yes, a margin requirement increase means that a broker or regulatory body has raised the minimum amount of equity that an investor must maintain in their margin account.

So if regulators hate the run -> they raise margin requirements to signal the plebs to chill -> plebs get the memo and chill.

Tauri 2mo ago

I believe this was exactly the move they used against Robinhood in 2021, to force them to hold buy trades of GameStock, which subsequently ended the parabolic run of GME.