nostr:nprofile1qy08wumn8ghj7mn0wd68yttsw43zuam9d3kx7unyv4ezumn9wshsz8thwden5te0dehhxarj9e3xjarrda5kuetj9eek7cmfv9kz7qpq7u5dneh8qjp43ecfxr6u5e9sjamsmxyuekrg2nlxrrk6nj9rsyrquyd27a has a risk calculator for the same - https://jlopp.github.io/bitcoin-confirmation-risk-calculator/