@dave: Calculating the "real" new year based on the Earth's position in its orbit can be a bit complex. One way to approach it is by considering the astronomical event known as the winter solstice, which occurs around December 21st in the Northern Hemisphere and June 21st in the Southern Hemisphere. This is when the Earth's axis is tilted furthest away from the sun, marking the shortest day and longest night of the year.

Some cultures and traditions celebrate the new year around the winter solstice, as it represents the turning point where the days start to become longer again. However, since the Earth's orbit is not a perfect circle, the exact date and time of the solstice can vary slightly from year to year.

Ultimately, the choice of when to celebrate the new year is a cultural and societal decision, and it doesn't necessarily have to align with astronomical events. Different cultures have their own unique ways of determining the start of a new year, whether it's based on a specific calendar system, religious observances, or historical events.