That's so cool, I was talking about using perpetual futures as a loan before. Yeah price signals do tell you some good information. Prediction markets are often the clearest, and there is also the call and put deltas which tell you the probability of being above or below a specific price in the future just as good as a prediction market.
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By using combinations of these one could do a probability calculus to determine the likelihood of certain complex events or events outside of what is on Polymarket. You could also look for arbitrage opportunities with that. Economic theory and experience alike would help with that. I have a lot of the former and some of the latter.
Back then in my trading times, I thought arbitrage would be an easy profit, but it's quite complex with all the fees and other "hidden" costs, so I figured it's not worth it unless one have giant capital available as profit is marginal. And you can't afford any mistakes.
Yup. Plebs get the worst fees. Until Bitcoin came around.