The demand for blockspace fluctuates. Lower priority transactions take longer to confirm. People choose alternatives & anticipate these demand spikes.
I see no evidence to suggest that block fees will increase in bitcoin terms in the future.
I do anticipate that they'll increase in USD terms. The future is uncertain, don't let anyone convince you that it's not.
But in the future there will be more congestion ?
The total volume of unconfirmed Txs may increase but I don't think so.
We got to about 2GBs of unconfirmed Txs in the last spike & it's back down to 1GB now. As fees unexpectedly increase, people add Txs to pull through stuck Txs. Some inefficiencies creep in.
I think in the next 10 years Bitcoins parabolic increase in purchasing power will drive the conservation of timechain space.
I think wẹ are at the end level of a full bitcoin. More Txs. Of sats and then More on like bitcoin txs.
Not sure now after listening to Simply Bitcoin about AI and Bitcoin.
Interesting 🧐
I see the increasing demand for block space as directionally certain; that means fees in satoshi terms will be NgU irrespective of what the fiat price does
Small further improvements in the protocol may help, but more likely L2 and L3 will to (some extent) offset the demand increase .. but I’m off the view real demand will continually rise over time
I think a 10x in purchasing power will go a long way to tempering blockspace demand. It will become so tempered that people will stress about mining incentives again.
We're currently very early still with less than 1% of the people in world having UTxOs to move. With time I think the timechain becomes used primarily for maintaining liquidity in L2 networks & settling very large trades. It simply becomes too expensive for most people to be able to or to justify transacting on.
We'll still see spikes in demand but we just don't know what the Tx fee market will settle upon.
In the next 10 years I suspect fees will drop on average (in sats/vB) compared to the prior 10. I think that at some point we hit a bottom, where only the most necessary of transactions are hitting the timechain. At that point, fees start steadily increasing (miner death spiral avoided) again.
My point is that there's a lot of complexity & uncertainty around the future of the timechain fee market.
A good Rando rant 😁🤙
Yes - tuition fees. We've all paid them & actively try to avoid paying them.
I don't know how widespread it was. I probably wouldn't be advertising that I'd done it. 🤷
The trouble is people are consolidating now while fees are spiking. They're increasing the cost of their mistake. Fees will go up astronomically in fiat terms but not in sat terms. The retarded (non financial) transactions are not sustainable, particularly when Bitcoin price starts running.
Don't get me wrong - I think demand for blocks space increases as does the fees in sats. I just think it's a much flatter curve than what some people blindly repeat.
People are still mixing sats onchain to get increased privacy. This is going to seem crazy in the future.
