Treasury markets have never experienced such large losses:

The Bloomberg Treasury total return index is down 11.0% from its 2020 peak, exceeding every other drawdown recorded over the last 100 years.

The drawdown accelerated after one of the fastest Fed rate hiking cycles in history with 525 bps of rate hikes in 16 months.

To put this into perspective, the second largest drawdown of the Treasury market was seen in the late 1970s at 7.5%.

Meanwhile, TLT, a popular bond-tracking ETF is now up 1% year-to-date after initially dropping 10%.

Bond markets are signaling a major shift.

Credit: The Kobeissi Letter