Fed uses statistical models to determine its policies.

The major problem with this is the data you feed this models. Statistical models can be very useful but if you start feeding it with garbage data, these models starts to show garbage results.

Like the amount of garbage data that goes into this model, which shows CPI is under 2-3 percent is unimaginable.

And fed uses this same garbage statistical model and try to apply it on the real economy.

So the Feds policies have skewed effects on the real economy that no one, even your favorite macro analyst and so call twitter finance guys can predict.