Replying to Avatar StackSats.IO

DANGERS OF THE BITCOIN STRATEGIC RESERVE

Everyone thinks about the price appreciation that nation state stacking brings on, but I’ve seen ZERO discussion of the potential downsides. So allow me be the one to shit in everyone’s cornflakes..

If the US does announce a SBR, Bitcoiners, you know the people who actually give this network value, are going to become targets.

We know:

- other countries will be forced to follow lest they be left behind

- they can’t print BTC

- they can’t tax BTC to accumulate it

- they have required KYC on exchanges in many countries

So what are those other nation states going to do when they realise they have to get their own stack?

They can’t print it. They can’t tax it. They’ve got a few regulated entities with lists of customers who have accumulated it..

Well they’re going to go knock on the exchange’s doors and demand lists of their customers who hold #Bitcoin.

Then they’re going to use the legal system, which they control, to coerce the HODLers to cough up their stacks to the government.

Expect to see: audits from the tax man. Unrealised gains taxes specifically on BTC. New legislation requiring corn addresses be declared or possibly joint custodied with Gov.

When that fails (which won’t take long, months probably); fuckery with HODLers business interests, debanking, travel bans, additional audits, outright bans/caps on individual ownership. M5M will portray greedy Bitcoiners as worse than Satan. Leftists will protest in the streets against them. Running a node will be prohibited by ISPs. There will be hotlines to report Bitcoiners to the Gov for some fiat rewards.

When they don’t get near their stacking target (they’ll all have delusions of grandeur of how they’re going to get some ridiculous % of the network assuming high rates of extraction from Bitcoiners on those lists + some open market ops) they’ll just go full Totalitarian.

Invented crimes with convictions only avoidable if HODLers cough up. Extending the lawfare targeting to family who fucking ignored you and have no corn but are now debanked and having their business destroyed, etc.

Within 1-2 years it will become impossible to hold BTC in nations like Aus, Canada, UK, and across Europe.

Boating accidents won’t cut it in front of judges and your pleas that they’ve shown the man and found the crime will fall on deaf ears - this is existential for the parasites, they’re not going to follow “the rules”.

Yanks will think they’re ok because they won’t face these pressures and their Gov were the “smart ones” who went first.

NO YOU DUMB FUCKS

Bitcoin is valuable because of decentralisation; you’re about to lose that when nation states make it impossible for individuals in large parts of the world to be part of the network lest they be destroyed.

This is the single biggest threat Bitcoin faces and all I see is supposed Bitcoiners cheering it on like the Goldbugs who love it when CBs pump their bags.

Bitcoin managed to cope with El Salvador adopting it. It won’t with the US - the knock ons are going to be immense.

This is not some Whitney Webb skizzopost by someone who doesn’t really understand Bitcoin. This is something I’ve understood for a while and which has fallen on deaf ears whenever I’ve raised it because ppl prefer to think of the bag pumping.

Yeah you’re going to be rich. Bitcoin is going to fork for regulation. You will have lost your allies who would have stopped it but can’t participate because you took the shortcut and they got removed to avoid jail.

If you want to avoid this, then it’s time to start seeing the State as your adversary again. Not your State, all of them. They’re all a problem.

Nation state game theory for Bitcoin, now, is bad for Bitcoiners.

It's good to be questioning things, but they didn't even buy anything yet. Probably they won't be able to either... They already missed the boat.

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Discussion

I’m not saying the SBR does get up, I’m exploring what happens if it does and that specifically from a non-yank lens.

Yeah, I mean, they will want some fiat backed version of bitcoin, like a stable coin. But I can't imagine in any constellation how that would work. Why would you have money backed money? LOL

Whitney does skizopost about Bitcoin because she doesn’t understand it, her writing partner Mark Goodwin does understand it though - read him.

It’s not about a fiat-backed Bitcoin. It’s about a release valve for US Treasuries to cover the US debt.

Stablecoins can be that debt absorber. The US won’t go CBDC which was the path Pocahontas was trying to take them down; it will go stablecoins.

Print debt and have Tether and Circle absorb it, don’t be surprised if Trump creates his own USD stablecoin. Inflate Bitcoin and hold it on the US balance sheet to counter the debt burden and dollarise the world through stablecoins taking the debt on to their books.

Makes sense I guess if people like Rug Pal want to hold stable coins. I certainly have never found a usecase for them.

Rug Pull remains an idiot.

But there’s 8 Billion+ people on this planet. They all want the best money. They don’t understand what that means across all dimensions but they understand the USD is most widely accepted so in their simplified version it suffice.

They’ll take the digital equivalent if it beats their local fiat which is inevitable given where all fiats are headed.