Share of USD trade will drop, market for US treasuries that they need to print is drying up sooner than later. Japan just lost $1.8 Trillion - how long can this last?

More friction for intrabloc trade. Every country that leaves USD for BRICS+ hurts.

Energy is on the side of BRICS+

Resources is on the side of BRICS+

Labour force is on the side of BRICS+

Manufacturing is on the side of BRICS+

Now Peace is on the side of BRICS+

Which way do you think Africa will swing if push comes to shove? The Middle East? LATAM? #[2] even questioning if the EU would realign.

Why wouldn’t they all just default on world bank debt? Work out new trade arrangements in the new bloc that work for them?

Lots of huge factors which could change the trajectory of the theory. Brent’s model never really talks about having half the USD market suddenly evaporate before he gets a sip of the milkshake.

I think he underestimates the chaos of collapse and expects government to act rationally and move to gold-backed before SHTF happens - which it won’t.