#EarlyWarning

In the next 27 years, on our current trajectory, everyone and everything alive on earth will first experience a world at an average global temperature of 15.3°C (+1.5°C above preindustrial average of 13.8°C) and then a world at 15.8°C (+2°C above preindustrial)

Both these states will unlock climate chaos only seen in movies.

Forget about 2100.

The clear and present danger is NOW for billions of people, animals and plants.

What we do TODAY about turning off the emissions tap that is pouring GHG’s into the atmosphere is going to determine if we can buy sufficient time to adapt or not.

#ClimateCrisis

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Discussion

I dont believe you😬

Gotta be honest, iIf you're not interested in nuclear, I'm not interested.

My suggestion is everyone eats bugs whilst I fly around the world on a private jet. Sound good?

First, that line is drawn wrong because by 2020 warming was + 0.9 C, not +1.25 C as shown. Second, absolute average temperatures like 15.3 and 13.8 are less certain than the difference, which is why the difference is used instead (If you subtract 13.8 from 15.3 you'll get the wrong value because they were measured using different techniques).

But most of all, I take issue with the idea that +1.5C or +2.0C will cause climate chaos only seen in movies. It will cause many extinctions (because there are very many species) and some people might have to move, but more likely some cities may need to build some storm walls. My bet is people won't even move in significant numbers.

Global warming does not cause extreme weather events, it only increases their frequency or intensity (or both) by small amounts because the weather system has more energy in it... so when you see devastatingly high temperatures or massive wildfires, these are only slightly worse than they would have been if climate change wasn't happening.

Far more people die of "too cold" than of "too hot"... at about a rate of 10 to 1. Global warming will save lives.

Earth is coming out of an ice age where temperature and CO2 levels have been extremely low (looking back at the last 100 million years or so). However, humans evolved during the last few million, so where we are going is unprecedented for humans, but not for primates. Humans originally specialized as persistence hunters - heat was in our favor.

I think we should cautiously and smartly figure out how to stop putting CO2 into the atmosphere. We are emitting it far too rapidly to be sustainable. We probably need to continue to burn fossil fuels in order to invent the solutions. Many solutions are already online as rich countries are emitting less and less over time. But I don't know how to tell poor African and Indian kids that they aren't allowed to get rich.

I think it is neigh impossible to stop climate change and you'd be better served figuring out how to adapt. For example: this might be a good time to buy property in Russia.

And I'm not here to argue. This is just a dump of my brain for your edification. Take it or leave it.

It seems like some scientists are censoring themselves. There is talk about the greater efficiency of electric motors to fuel engines, however they will not mention the more significant and extremely low energy per weight efficiency of the necessary batteries. The problem is misdirected away, which is counterproductive.

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Furthermore, nuclear power and hydropower, that don't need battery technology, are often neglected, which is inconsistent.

+1 to hydropower. The naysayers argument against (too much concrete, destroys river habitats) doesn't weigh much in the balance of things.

Let's be honest, one solution invented by the West is to delegate the production of their highly polluting shit to developing countries.

Qu'est ce que je donnerai si j'en avais les moyens d'échanger sur votre note. Hélas avec Internet tous développements, arguments...est possible du coup les spécialistes ne valent plus rien

Puis les données de cette semaine sont à compte, sans oublier notre planète qui tourne + vite, la calotte glaciaire ainsi que les Montagnes qui perdent leur hauteur, puis je vous inviterai bien à lire les œuvres Jared Diamond surtout le 3eme Chimpanzé, revoir peut-être le *cauchemar de Dante* et resituer sur notre Monde actuel et nos besoins exponentiels, et pour pourquoi pas le World Earth Catalog en version papier ou le bouquin sur Stewart Brand, d'ailleurs il serait bien qu'ils soient sur nostr surtout M. Brand au lieu de You Type ou X

If we had the means to build working and accurate mathematical climate models, we wouldn’t have what you keep calling “climate emergency”.

I don’t believe you.

I believe in historical facts.

No matter the realities, I don't know how to advocate for improved behaviour around the climate without playing direcly into the hands of extremely corrupt institutions bent on using this narrative to justify the expansion of their power, and control over the entire world.

Quick, turn off the sun.

Oh wait no, all temperature comes from an invisible gas linked to tax.

Right now it's about 3-4°C cooler than 10,000 years ago.

But yeah, please go spread your unfounded fear propaganda to enrich the green scammers.

I gotta wonder just how your climate models work.

Have you tested them for historical accuracy?

Na man.

What I struggle with to see is how 2 degree will have such a massive impact. Sure, people will move, there will be hunger and catastrophes but overall there will still be plenty of inhabitable land on this world. It seems that climate change is only compounding existing challenges.

On the other hand there are radical transformations looming. The threat of nuclear war or a new world war, transformations from new technology such as ai, the technological possibilities of a full surveillance state, pollution and many more I forget or don't even know about yet.

I find it very hard to believe that in 50 years, we look back and feel that the most significant change was the 2 degree heating of the globe. That indeed sounds to me like a quite optimistic scenario.

#theories