People FUDing Bitcoin over quantum, mining centralization, etc is like climate alarmists that say that humanity is going to parish on earth imminently
People completely discredited any ability to adapt and build appropriate mechanisms to avoid catastrophe.
Stack sats; stay humble
Same thing happens in macro. Doomers will be like “all this debt is going to implode and be deflationary” and then the central bank and fiscal authorities respond and print money. Deflation gone, enter inflation.
And then other doomers always expect hyperinflation around the corner, even though policymakers do respond to currency weakness as well. It’s not to say it can never happen, but it’s never on the timeline they think.
Risks need to be monitored, but most systems do have responsive control loops in them that mitigate risks more than doomers think.
💯
I agree QE isn't inflationary in general, but it is worth remembering that it did drive up asset prices, so it could be curious to see it impact Bitcoin, as last time we had it (without fiscal stimulus) Bitcoin was too small to register it. Those bank reserves don't go far, but when its banks buying Bitcoin, it may be far enough...
Are they good at responding to currency weakness and mitigating the risk as well?
If you zoom out, debt defaults, bankruptcies, currency collapse and other "doomer" scenarios happen all the time. On average countries default about 3 times every century.
Of course making short term doom predictions is a mistake. The probability of a one-every-33 years event happening next year is very low. Doomers, just like anybody else predicting the future, care more about clickbait than being right.
Still, we should not discount the possibility of a major crisis happening in the next 10 years. In the 20th century the US defaulted twice (Roosevelt, Nixon)... and it was the wealthiest nation! Others did much worse.
Over the next 100 years the probability of a default is very high.
nostr:nprofile1qqsqa6p85dhghvx0cjpu7xrj0qgc939pd3v2ew36uttmz40qxu8f8wq8vdeta how often do countries default on their sovereign debt on average? What is the probability of default in 100 years?
countries default on sovereign debt roughly 2-3 times per century on average, based on historical records for nations like spain (13 defaults 1500-1900) and france (8 from 1500-1800), though it varies by region and era—emerging markets see more.
over 100 years, the probability is very high, often near 100% for at-risk countries, as crises recur cyclically despite adaptations.
wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/sovereign_default
nber
https://www.nber.org/digest/202408/costs-sovereign-debt-crises
