So much of Bitcoin price discourse is a failure to realise that it trades like a currency, not like a stock, by people who have never traded either one.

Your mental framework for BTC price should imo be something like this:

- Historically, at least since GFC, emerging market currencies only went down against USD: -60% since 2008 on a weighted average basket (JPM EM FX index), carry excluded

- For many of them, this went gradually, eg the US dollar going from 13 to 25 against the Mexican peso between 2010 and 2020. For others it went straight line down, eg Argentina peso 2018-25 or Venezuelan bolivar 2019-25

- USD almost always wins, as it’s the global funding currency. The system is both structurally short dollar and dollar dependent, and EM balance sheets are often weak and asymmetric - will leave that for another time

- Against other major currencies like the euro, it has been much more give and take. Periods of strength and weakness but not a trend. EUR/USD goes from parity to 1.50 and back again

- Now here comes the crucial point: every piece of evidence from the last 15 years tells us that Bitcoin has assumed the role of the USD against Argentina peso, but now the USD has become the peso, and Bitcoin is proving to be the stronger entity

Bear markets still exist because of sentiment (fear), and the role of the dollar in the traditional financial system plumbing. But fundamentally bitcoin is simply a stronger currency and will keep trading like that.

The one thing that never happens to currencies, let alone apex predator currencies, is that they “go to zero”. You can instantly discard anyone who says things like that, they haven’t even grasped the most basic property of the thing they’re dealing with.