There are prominent, otherwise smart Bitcoiners that are well aware of the halving, but don’t think a massive supply shock even affects the price. Much more insane.
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Despite all the incredible reasons to eagerly look forward to the Bitcoin halvings… 99%+ of people don’t know this event will happen next year. In fact, shockingly few people have ever heard about Bitcoin’s halvings!
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Umm, you guys know a halving is happening next year, right? Truth: this will be my first one. It was much more compelling to start buying January 2022 and buy into the dip that lasted a freakin' year.
https://www.onceinaspecies.com/p/the-bitcoin-halving-6-months-until
Discussion
Well, it does seem that other events (ETFs, more nation state adoption, printer going brrr and people realizing their other assets can be confiscated or simply melted away) would start having an outsized effect in comparison.
I have a friend who brags about having worked at the largest bank in his country who told me the supply and demand don’t matter, and that supply on exchanges don’t matter. “It’s just a random trading price”
The opposite side of that coin is that if all the DCA’rs stopped, the price wouldn’t change either.