By that I mean in the last there’s been hope that learning the new tools will give you an edge - that you’ll still have a job. But I’m currently very pessimistic this will be true again this time. This time the tools themselves will be automatons able to completely replace you. So the first step is your manager using a bunch of OpenAI compute time instead of using you. The next step is their manager doing that to them, all the way to the top. Would love to hear counter-arguments.
Discussion
The article argues exactly otherwise , those who use the tools will be ahead , not the intelligence itself.
I guess I could compress my response down to: what if all of a sudden there are things that can “use the tools” that are smarter than humans?
I haven’t read the linked MIT technology review article yet (lmk if I should to understand your point better), but the linked one at least seemed to say this “it’s always been net positive, it will this time too”. I think that’s a bad extrapolation - past revolutions are not analogous because every time in the past, Homo sapiens dominated the new tech in a lot of intellectual metrics. So we had a niche we could move to, earn money, and even be (much) better off overall. I think that niche will be extremely small in the short term. Celebrity (currently smaller) and manual labor (currently larger). And humans won’t outcompete in those categories forever either.
Do you disagree with any of this? Do you assume we will use the tools better than AI?
Yes , just try using it , it's dumb and restricted , it's just a language model , it can't do anything, maybe in the future we will see something, but it's just a tool, like Google is , and will improve the work of those who use it , like Google did .
I hear ya, it is far from ready right now. I useit all the time. What I’m talking about is the way that it very possibly could scale in the next five years. If it stays the same, then I’m totally with you. I don’t think it will, and I also don’t think we need any huge breakthroughs for it to get to the level I’m talking about. Literally just stacking, incremental improvements from here