"A short recession that begins soon — offering the chance for a rebound by Election Day 2024 — might be the best-case scenario for Democrats." - BBG You'll be amazed at how long seasonal adjustments can delay the onset of a recession https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-18/biden-recession-in-2023-would-be-better-for-reelection-odds-than-2024