I just look at fedi and see a very dysfunctional group of fringe ppl and instances. I actually think it’ll be around for a while because it lets them find each other, like you said.

For example, the trannies like fedi because they wanted more censorship and they wanted to build a hugbox for themselves.

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Just in recent months a ton of projects involving ActivityPub have started so it's definitely not going anywhere. It will probably be mainstream before Nostr, esp. with Facebook jumping in. But ActivityPub will become the new tranny janny haven and Nostr will be the board for ppl with a triple digit IQ who can say nigger.

I’m sure Facebook 2.0 will be amazing.

Honestly it is cool that these protocols are getting attention, but ofc mainstream companies will never be on the bleeding edge, they're going to go with the one that's been around for a long time.

Minds.com already wrote a NIP for integrating Nostr into centralized platforms even though their relay is dead and they don't use it anymore.