馃嚞馃嚙 Previsible bad inflation in March (we already advanced it a few days ago). Although not as bad as the figures indicate: core (underlying) inflation only rises from 2.9% to 3.2%. The remaining rise is due to seasonal prices (up 8.4%).
However, the relative deterioration is clear: the expectations of devaluation during March in the face of the IMF agreement depreciated the weight and were incorporated into domestic prices. If there is a rearrangement of the exchange rate scheme following the agreement with the IMF (as it seems to be), that is, if there is a certain devaluation, it is equally likely that several months will come with higher inflation than we had used to in the previous months.
However, this realignment between domestic prices and the exchange rate should not be confused with the country's galloping inflation year and a half ago. As long as budgetary and financial stability is maintained, that is a matter of the past.
馃嚜馃嚫 Previsible mal dato de inflaci贸n en marzo (ya lo adelantamos hace algunos d铆as). Aunque no tan malo como las cifras indican: la inflaci贸n n煤cleo (subyacente) s贸lo sube del 2,9% al 3,2%. El resto de subida se debe a precios estacionales (que suben 8,4%).
Aun as铆, el empeoramiento relativo es claro: las expectativas de devaluaci贸n durante marzo ante el acuerdo con el FMI depreciaron el peso y se incorporaron a los precios internos. Si hay reacomodamiento del esquema cambiario tras el acuerdo con el FMI (como parece que as铆 ser谩), esto es, si hay una cierta devaluaci贸n, es igualmente previsible que vengan varios meses con una inflaci贸n m谩s alta de la que nos hab铆amos acostumbrado en los meses anteriores.
No obstante, no habr铆a que confundir este realineamiento entre los precios internos y el tipo de cambio con la inflaci贸n galopante que sufr铆a el pa铆s hace a帽o y medio. Mientras se mantenga la estabilidad presupuestaria y financiera, eso es cosa del pasado.
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