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Let's see...that's all the new supply, plus 1,584 more coins, gobbled up per day. If carried on through the current halving epoch, that'd be all new supply + 428k coins. If the same demand remains through next halving epoch, that'd be current supply + about 3m coins over those 4 years.

So call it 3.5m coins over next 4.5 years.

Haven't looked at liquid vs illiquid supply in a while...I think liquid supply is only 1-2 million coins.

The only way that this can carry on is for long-term hodlers to become more enticed by what they can trade their sats than they're enticed by hodling them.

Hodlers are very enticed by holding sats 😎

Bill Cypher 2y ago

Indeed we are. I feel pretty safe no one can rebut my axioms. I may not have nailed the numbers, other factors will change. More plebs will join the army of holders is also a pretty safe axiom and that pushes the equilibrium price up. I don't see any big changes that lower the price from here except deepening recession forcing some to sell or cut DCAs to make ends meet.

I feel pretty confidant QE comes just in time for the gov refinancing that is due the next 2 years.

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Discussion

Lonelypumpkins 2y ago

Remember that former bitcoiner you met? The one who got orange pilled, went down the rabbit hole, had the majority of his net worth in bitcoin, then changed his mind and aped back into dollars? Me neither.

It's a one-way function...numbers might change here and there, but the trend is undeniable.

Lonelypumpkins 2y ago

You're spot-on about the debt rolling over being the impetus for more massive QE (aka sanctioned counterfeit of USD)