Just for lay of the land, we are at 96 logical qubits now, with error correction working, and we need around 2,000 logical qubits to crack a wallet key.

The main issue, though, is that unexpected breakthroughs are by nature *unexpected*. That includes breakthroughs in hardware, as well as breakthroughs in pure math, which people often forget about. (The most dangerous breakthroughs for bitcoin are actually mathematical, the space of quantum algorithms and classical assistance for quantum algorithms is woefully under-explored.)

So as long as unexpected breakthroughs are a thing, there is no honest assessment of the number of years that would carry weight. All we can say is that the cracking of bitcoin wallet keys in the near term would require a major breakthrough but is certainly within the realm of possibility.