its not wrong to say you can know true spends on the chain, since theres a chain to be monitored.

and you can know the true spends to the extent you have access to wallet data.

so Sybil attacks are a thing

short EAE traces are a thing.

and best practices on a L2 could fix that.

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Of course you can know if you have the wallet data. You spent it. Is that so different from grabbing two lightning wallets, seeing a payment for X sats at Y timestamp and concluding you have the sender and receiver wallets?

Personally I don't see that as a flaw.

As for knowing true spends on chain, that's the thing, you can't.

All you can say is a certain output is part of a ring signature. You don't know whether it's a decoy or a real spend.

Could this be improved? Yes, and it will (FCMP++ soon™).

Are a few statistical attacks around this weakness known & understood? Yes.

So.. his arguments are a nothing burger, really.

i mean

its different that you need both wallets and not just the sending one.

and its just timing analysis instead of cryptographic proof.

so its different but i agree its meh

and the point is that if you have access to the sending wallet you DO know which are the true spends .

nobody is saying they can identify the true spend in a ring as a 3rd party.

but it's pertinent to know there IS public information and what it is.