If you read Todd Zola’s RotoWire piece https://www.rotowire.com/baseball/article/the-z-files-will-scoring-pick-up-82987 (paywall), you’ll see a convincing case that the baseball is deader this year, not leaving the park as often, explains the low run-scoring environment.

Seems like injuries to key players are up too, but maybe that’s just my teams.