I’ve seen stuff like that. The gist always seems to be “it’s really hard to estimate.” Already significantly demonetized ~160 years ago and will step function down again as Bitcoin eats whatever premium is left, so IMO the S2F is headed much lower.
Do you have a source? This is what I found online showing that is closer to 3% - 4%:
Silver Supply Increase and Industrial Consumption
The percentage increase of silver supply and the amount consumed by industry that's not reclaimable vary yearly. Here's a breakdown:
Recent Trends:
2023: Estimated increase of 4% in total silver supply, reaching a new high of 1.055 billion ounces. This increase arose primarily from higher mine output exceeding 5%.
2024 (forecast): Expected 3% increase in total supply, reaching 1.02 billion ounces. Mine production is expected to rise 4%, indicating the main driver of growth again.
Industrial Consumption:
Roughly 50-60% of annual silver demand comes from industrial uses like electronics, solar panels, and medical applications.
Reclaimability:
Some industrial uses allow for silver recovery and recycling, although it varies depending on the application.
Studies suggest around 20-30% of industrially consumed silver gets recycled.
The remaining 70-80% is considered permanently lost or dispersed, contributing to a net depletion of available silver.
Sources:
Silver Institute: https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/
Sprott: https://sprott.com/insights/consumer-trends-bode-well-for-silver/?alttemplate=printblogarticle
Gold Price Forecast: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-silver-forecast-precious-metals-rally-to-come-under-threat-20230916.html
Important Note: These are estimates and forecasts, and actual figures may vary. The Silver Institute publishes detailed annual reports on silver supply and demand, offering the most comprehensive insights.
Silver Supply Increase and Industrial Consumption
The percentage increase of silver supply and the amount consumed by industry that's not reclaimable vary yearly. Here's a breakdown:
Recent Trends:
2023: Estimated increase of 4% in total silver supply, reaching a new high of 1.055 billion ounces. This increase arose primarily from higher mine output exceeding 5%.
2024 (forecast): Expected 3% increase in total supply, reaching 1.02 billion ounces. Mine production is expected to rise 4%, indicating the main driver of growth again.
Industrial Consumption:
Roughly 50-60% of annual silver demand comes from industrial uses like electronics, solar panels, and medical applications.
Reclaimability:
Some industrial uses allow for silver recovery and recycling, although it varies depending on the application.
Studies suggest around 20-30% of industrially consumed silver gets recycled.
The remaining 70-80% is considered permanently lost or dispersed, contributing to a net depletion of available silver.
Sources:
Silver Institute: https://www.silverinstitute.org/silver-supply-demand/
Sprott: https://sprott.com/insights/consumer-trends-bode-well-for-silver/?alttemplate=printblogarticle
Gold Price Forecast: https://www.dailyfx.com/news/gold-silver-forecast-precious-metals-rally-to-come-under-threat-20230916.html
Important Note: These are estimates and forecasts, and actual figures may vary. The Silver Institute publishes detailed annual reports on silver supply and demand, offering the most comprehensive insights.
Discussion
Here is an argument I made on how bitcoin could actually increase silver demand:
How the Rise of Bitcoin Could Actually Empower Silver
I predict that bitcoin will likely usurp gold's role as a Store of Value but it might actually empower silver as an emerging private cash Medium of Exchange. Here's why:
Lightning is still quite challenging for most people to hold their own keys and manage their own payment channels.
Other Layer 2 solutions like Liquid and eCash are digital Promissory Notes that require trusting third parties to honor their I.O.U.'s (kinda back to where this whole thing started and what early bitcoiners were trying to get away from).
These are all useful but it is important to know and manage your risks.
I posit that there is an emerging place for silver as a true bearer cash asset with all the privacy benefits. And it can help solve the "last mile" problem for daily, in-person commerce.
Silver is a physical asset without counter-party risk which makes it a trustless savings and trading alternative for the millions of people who cannot afford an on-chain transaction.
I believe Bitcoin can make silver shine again as it brings awareness to the value of non-IOU money.
Continuing the thought:
Historically, gold was used primarily as a Store of Value and for large purchases.
The need to store it and protect it gave rise to centralized power structures that could control the vaults and cook the books, thereby gaining more power to forcefully push out competing currencies like silver.
Bitcoin puts the power of storage, security, and influence back into the hands of the individual allowing a non-IOU bearer cash asset like silver to re-emerge once again as a Medium of Exchange (and savings for those who don't have enough to afford on-chain bitcoin savings) with bitcoin taking on the new role as the premier Store of Value for larger amounts.
But this can only happen to any significant degree after the dollar collapse and the accompanying weakening of these centralized power structures who only survive by controlling the fiat printing press.
#silver
#bitcoin
#gold
*Bitcoin transaction fees are prohibitive for everyday commerce.
Goldbacks are already doing that.
What's their margin over the gold value? Personally, I prefer coins. Easier to verify.
About 100%. There is approximately 2 dollars worth of gold in a Goldback. Goldback is as close to counterfeit proof as can be. The technology and the machinery to make a Goldback cost about 10 million dollars.