The US central bank's recent unprecedented increase in interest rates comes at a precarious time, considering the current high level of leverage within the system. The following figures signal the possibility of an impending deleveraging event. Despite this, the US has managed to postpone any immediate repercussions due to its dominant position, with the USD being the world's reserve currency. However, a shift in global mindset and erosion of trust in the US could rapidly alter the situation.
The US is grappling with significant public debt, nearing 32 trillion dollars, and interest payments on this debt have climbed to nearly 1 trillion dollars.
The debt-to-GDP ratio is close to 120%, and research conducted by the World Bank suggests that countries with debt-to-GDP ratios exceeding 77% for extended periods tend to experience significant economic growth slowdowns. Each percentage point above this threshold costs countries approximately 0.017 percentage points in economic growth. It raises the question of whether this high level of debt-to-GDP ratio is becoming the new norm for the US.
The US consumer credit card total balance has surged to approximately 760 billion dollars, with interest rates on credit card debt soaring above 16% as a consequence of the most recent hike cycle.
Residential mortgages also contribute to the debt situation, with numbers surpassing 13 trillion dollars, and the interest rate on these mortgages stands close to 7%.
Mounting pressure on US consumers raises default and bankruptcy concerns. History indicates that debt-based systems with easy monetary policy, and central and fractional reserve banking always lead to major deleveraging events, hurting average people.
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