I’m off-setting that bullish possibility by the risk that the market price of bitcoin has been to-date carefully managed by large holders (cough cough Tether) rather than organic

If it has been truly organic for the past decade, then the bullish developments should drive the price parabolic, yes

But if it has been managed (ie artificially-inflated) with the goal of attracting widespread adoption, which is now occurring, then dramatic upward manipulation might be no longer necessary and thus the past would serve as no real predictor for future price action

I mean, the widely publicized S2FX of the last cycle was just dead fucking wrong

If we ignore price and look just at halving timing vs the last cycle, we may already be near peak

Greed and fear at 75 also suggests this possibility

On the positive side this would probably mean an 80% drawdown isn’t likely