Had a quick look at Bitcoin twitter the other day and it is shocking how clueless most Bitcoiners (even OGs) are.

They fail to understand simple concepts and incentives, or at least pretend to not understand them.

Here are some of the things most fail to understand:

1. Confusing permissionless tech with permissionless adoption ( permissionless technology ≠ permissionless adoption).

- The system controls rails, not code; adoption is steered by defaults, custody concentration, and tax/reporting.

- Separate tech truth (permissionless, scarce, global) from adoption truth (defaults, rails, policy).

2. Ignoring revealed preferences.

- States repeatedly choose ring-fencing (ETFs, KYC, custody oligopolies) over Strategic reserve adoption. No G7 state is buying Bitcoin to pump your bags (they may steal it though), so stop begging 😂

3. Assuming "co-opt the State"

- In reality, the State co-opts Bitcoin by financializing price exposure while starving sovereign usage at scale.

- When I listen to Bitcoiners talk about how "Governments are so stupid and don't understand Bitcoin, but they'll understand it eventually", I have to laugh. These people might actually have a mental disability.

4. You can't enforce SoV (the 21 million cap) by not holding your coins, by investing in Bitcoin ETFs (remember GLD?), and by not asking treasury companies for Proof-of-Reserves, etc.

And I am not saying that you won't get incredibly rich by buying Bitcoin.

If you invested in gold in its infancy, you still got incredibly rich even with the State co-opting it.

What I am saying is that most Bitcoiners are buying Gold, while thinking they're buying Bitcoin.

In other words, digital gold for most, money for a few.

Again, the State's dominant strategy is containment, not capitulation (nor killing Bitcoin). Bitcoin will be tolerated as financial exposure (in surveilled wrappers) and as a self-custody tail hedge for individuals - but not as a parallel monetary base.

I have to write more about the Travel Rule / KYC hardening, etc, because the State has clearly shown its cards, but most Bitcoiners listen to words coming from charismatic politicians instead of looking at the actions of the string-pullers.

This has been a tough pill to swallow for me as well 😂, but burying my head in the sand is not an option for me. Mental weakness is not an option.