The halving isn’t really an event because it’s just 450 fewer coins per day. It’s no different than if someone new came in and bought 450 coins one day.

It’s something that happens over time when each day there’s that much less supply and eventually that lack is felt in the market.

It’s kind of like how June 21 is the longest day, but the cumulative above-average sunlight takes two more months to achieve maximum heat in August.

Only in the case of the halving, it would be like every day were as long as June 21 until 4 years later when it got even longer.