In the Politico article I posted last night, they claim

> “We believe the Russians, in a final deal, will accept all these things which allow for a strong and free Ukraine. Russia, in a final deal, has indicated they were open to Ukraine joining the EU,” a second U.S. official said.

But I don't have a line to the Russians, to confirm.

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I'd imagine that would be contingent to annexation of the eastern territories with a corridor that connects Crimea to Russia and some buffer areas. I doubt they are willing to expand EU frontiers to a 1000km straight line through plains to Moscow.

I don't have a line to Moscow either, just a guess

Seems it’s just another way to say they’re letting Ukraine join NATO to me…

No, Article 5 is open-ended and universal. This is only about Russia and only particular countries.

Both sides currently seem to be cherry-picking bits of the territorial map, including particular power stations, mountains, rivers, harbors, road corridors, etc.

That is actually a hopeful sign. We'll see.

I'm not so optimistic. I think the ukrainians might be the only ones really looking at a map of Ukraine. The rest are looking at a map of the Black Sea and its territorial waters.