Due to **group psychology**, newcomers arrive in waves. Bitcoin's current adoption trend is to increase in value on an exponential trend line with said waves.

The waves have a destabilizing effect on the Bitcoin exchange rate:

- speculators are unsure of the amplitude or wavelength of adoption

- amateurish punters let their excitement as well as subsequent fear overwhelm them.

Regardless, once the tide has pulled back and the weak hands have folded, the price is a few multiples higher than before the wave.

-- an excerpt from Speculative Attack (2014), its 2-minute version can be found here: https://2minutebitcoin.org/blog/bitcoin-speculative-attack-on-the-dollar-2014