OK. Now I read it. An hour of my life spent feeling vanquished and I feel older.
I think it's a sound text and makes a lot of sense. I was however missing some stuff that may be subject for future texts. It has mostly to do with data points. Admittedly, I'm a geek in my echo chamber that have no idea about what reality actually looks like. So, when saying I'd like some data on what the current estimates of actual dissent looks like it's because I hope there is some. Like, app stores have received critique and we have stuff like F-Droid. Likewise, there is continued work in de-googled systems, freedom stores for iOS, and stuff like that. Of course, if something becomes outlawed only outlaws can use that something, but you say that outlawing isn't really on the table anyway.
Another thing I was missing is some kind of analysis of the state of the art of other clients and whether that state tilts the favor somehow. There seems also be work on a client where it is up to the transaction submitter to provide all necessary data for the transaction - voiding the need to store other entities' stuff. This is called Utreexo. Yes, I know this has some way to go still, and I don't even know how far into the future the viability of using it is, nor do I know if there are any big blockers. But surely, since the ideas exist they must mean something. Incorporating these things might change the outlook - or not.