I think we'd be at 8MB blocks, and mostly unfilled until inscriptions. So total size would be not much more then what we have now, but potential growth rate of nearly 500GB/year going forward and network strain would lead to less decentralization

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Would they be unfilled though without lightning?

Good point. If lightning didn't exist then I think there would be more on chain transactions.

But maybe not 🤔

It's all hypothetical. Without lightning, nodes are simpler to run, and there'd be more incentive to conjoin while fees could be lower from less fee pressure from bigger blocks.

A fools errand though as we're on this course and scale much better as a result.