But are as many people using it for casual transactions at that point?

I feel like the lightning network will be 100x better than it is today.

So even though there’s way more people using bitcoin, are as many using the layer 1?

I dunno either

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Hard to say but if the aggregate fees in base layer are below 100 sats in 2030 i would be very concerned with the security of the network.

Average fees * not aggregate