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Chris

And when the next few trillion of dollars tries convert fiat to BTC? How does the containment plan work then? 🤨

Your assumptions assume everyone is a day trader and long term Bitcoin adoption is near zero….

Just look how well they are controlling gold 🙄

A 10x valued hard asset with looser opaque supply and validation.

Control-Plane Capital 3mo ago

You basically didn't read the post and the quoted post or didn't understand them.

When are you expecting the next few trillion of dollars to convert to Bitcoin? Make sure to tell them to market buy spot BTC so they can move the price.

None of the assumptions assume that everyone is a day trader and long term Bitcoin adoption is near zero.

The post literally states that it assumes increased Paperization - custodial/ETF/futures share of float.

So you didn't read or understand the post, and you definitely didn't read or understand the quoted post:

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqvtw30knexxgwasss0qwafnz68hdx6u25xwpclsz4750ez46qpx2qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcpr9mhxue69uhkc6t8dp6xu6twvaex2mrp0yhxxmmd9uqzplfvpve5lkalumaw8zkqv0g0mr30dm02dxva5qsu26m0fyq7rlnrwx8sqa

In regards to your gold comment, you can try to read and understand this post and the quoted post:

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqvtw30knexxgwasss0qwafnz68hdx6u25xwpclsz4750ez46qpx2qyt8wumn8ghj7etyv4hzumn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcppemhxue69uhkummn9ekx7mp0qywhwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnzd96xxmmfdejhytnnda3kjctv9uqzql2xs267z72v226df2f6uryuz4v866h7pgackrcs930m6r43emjz3mpz9f

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Discussion

Chris 3mo ago

The existing 100x-500x size fiat system is in terminal collapse. 5-8 years at the longest. Maybe shorter. Thats just 2nd derivative math.

We hyperinflate into gold and bitcoin (short term) bitcoin only (long term).

Paper supply can keep up for a few years, perhaps. But eventually (and unevenly) the (short) dam breaks.

For gold it took decades, but it’s finally breaking. (Up 2x and 12 trn in less than 2 years)

For bitcoin, I sense, it will be much shorter as it is a far harder/better global money than gold (coming from a former gold bug).

Be careful as you trade from the short side. That’s all I’m saying.

Control-Plane Capital 3mo ago

So you didn't address any of the arguments in the posts and are coming out with more diversion and wishful thinking logical fallacies.

Do you know for how long people have been calling for a hyperinflation type scenario?

Maybe it will happen in Nigeria or Zimbabwe, but the US dollar system is about to get reset with stablecoins/CBDCs.

Either way, good luck.

Chris 3mo ago

It’s a great story….i get the attraction to it. But the math doesn’t net out.

Graph global m2 and debt. Now take the same 2nd derivative line forward 5-8 yrs.

A few trillion in stablecoins over next 5-8 years doesn’t even cover a tiny fraction of govt borrowing needs. And that’s just marginal NEW debt needed to keep the existing system afloat. Not the mention the hundreds of trillions of EXISTING debt that is a write off.

The whole world IS Zimbabwe. Just on a different time scale.

All these (CBDC et all) will be tried. No doubt. Govts have to do something! But these just aren’t a big enough boat. And to even try requires massive global co-ordination. Not just US acting alone. Good luck with that 🤣

(I founded and managed a multi billion dollar credit hedge fund in the 2000s, so I’m not talking as a layman. Just for context.)

Lastly, the massively deflationary impacts from AI in that same time period make the situation far harder for them to navigating as well. (Read: even HIGHER deficits needed)

That’s why I’m so confident on timing.

We’ll see! It will be a wild ride either way! 🎥🍿

Chris 3mo ago

I’m reminded of Mike Tyson’s famous quip….”Everyone’s got a plan, until they get punched in the face”.

A punch in the face is coming. For the entire architecture of central governance globally 😉

Funny story…

I walked into many boardrooms to meet with my investors on our “short all things mortgage and subprime” thesis and trade in 2007 and was often rebuffed with “AAA rated banks and fin cos CANT default”. You’re making a big mistake.

My response was always the same. Leg go of your reverence for/dogma about these institutions and thier 100 years of history. It’s just MATH. 🤓