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AGI doesn't matter. A gram of boom boom and facial recognition on a drone = all the bad stuff.

When I bring this up, people say we'll get our own drone to defend us from the bad drones. That won't work. In the physical world, the difference between "attack" and "defend" is so enormous that the concept of defense is silly. It doesn't exist in the real world. You're either attacking, or you're dying. Thus, the issue is not "when-AGI" ; its new materials for rotors and batteries that last longer and/or discharge faster. It was never about AGI. All ideas about "freedom" can be turned off with a button. We can only hope no one has built the button yet.

No, bitcoin does not fix this. In fact, bitcoin accelerates it.

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Discussion

JackTheMimic 4mo ago

I don't think this is accurate. The defense strategy is why most things don't attack puffer fish, sea urchins, or trap door spiders. Defense does not mean the turtle strategy, it means using your defense as such a costly prohibition to attack, attackers don't bother.

It costs very little to make a chicken wire dome around your house that would stop most drones. If drone assassination is a REAL and present danger, no one would walk around without identity obfuscation. Rubber masks cost less than a drone bomb. Uniforms cost less than drone bombs.

Here's the equation:

Attack = X

Defense = Y

If cost of X > Y, defense wins.

Comte de Sats Germain 4mo ago

Yes... and no. An animal biting a puffer fish loses its life, so Y is infinity. But the whole point of a drone is so that you don't have to go out there in a balloon and personally do the deed - so X is the marginal cost of the materials, which is falling over time. The marginal cost of software is zero, so as long as it has processing on board, running any obstacle course you can imagine is no problem. As bitcoin sucks the store of value component of prices to itself, the rate of prices falling should accelerate.

I'm not seeing it man. What could we do to increase the cost of attack?

JackTheMimic 4mo ago

You don't, you decrease the cost of defense. Same as what happens in attacking.

Comte de Sats Germain 4mo ago

Defense doesn't work. Its a myth.

JackTheMimic 4mo ago

Evidence? I mean, it seems very intuitive: violence has cost, time, materials, and lives. The benefit is you get the spoils of the victims. If the cost for defense is less than it takes to attack, by attrition, you win. The added benefit of bitcoin being unconfiscatable outside of voluntary dissemination of the keys make the attack even MORE costly because now whatever the defender doesn't hold in material wealth is no longer a spoil of war. So, actually bitcoin DOES fix this. As well as it generally more costly to build bombs versus defenses against those bombs.

The reason you think the opposite is true is people are using fiat monetary expansion to essentially get a discount on bombs while there is no such discount on defense. While fiat reigns, and idiots take it as payment attacks are easier than they would be. Just like how war USED to be costly until the income tax made it involuntary to fund war. They used to have to sell war bonds and gain massive popular support.

Comte de Sats Germain 4mo ago

The understanding that defense doesn't exist was drilled into me by a sergeant who I'll never forget. Only attack exists. That's real doctrine.

Bitcoin doesn't fix that. It will be very cheap to put some stuff on a drone, and a QR code, and tell people "send btc here or else," if that's even the motivation for the attack. That motivation hasn't been needed so far for militaries to use drones. If you look at states like Israel, you see a state motivated to depopulate a particular area. That's an extreme case, but a lot of military activity is just controlling movement or getting people to leave. Its only a matter of time until drones with facial recognition are used selectively, or just used to harass humans to get them to leave. Or just go Israel style and kill as many as they can. Yes, nation states can print to pay for it, but even when they can't, they will still use drones. The whole purpose of a drone is to reduce costs. And they do, massively. Even if no states and no armies exist, people will still put weapons on drones. They'd be insane not to.

JackTheMimic 4mo ago

I understand what you are saying. Do you understand the counterpoint at all? Cost, manufacturers, and those who kill innocent people with drones would not be tolerated. If I found out you make drones that kill innocent people I would murder you and your family. Simple as that. You can't be a part of a murder campain without consequence.

Comte de Sats Germain 4mo ago

You're an ethical person, and I admire you for that. If more people were like that, then I wouldn't be as worried.