Yeah, I’m familiar with it. The concept seems to make some sense but I’m not sure reality is that mechanistic. For example, in the Old Testament, the people of Israel turned to God, he blessed them, they became wealthy and prospered, they forgot God and became decadent, the kingdom is overrun by a foreign king and then the cycle repeats. However, this didn’t happen in regular 80 year cycles.
That’s a good point. The 80-year “saeculum” cycle from The Fourth Turning is just one cycle of many.
Ray Dalio claims we are at the end of the 250-year “empire” cycle, as well as the 100-year long-term debt cycle.
Maybe there is a 2-millennia Israel cycle as well. Or maybe there’s no Israel cycle at all.
Just some crude mechanisms for understanding the ebbs and flows of civilization.
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