Does anyone else ever think about how the current Hero generation will solve the problems of the #FourthTurning and then their children will be the next “boomer” generation of entitled fools? (Please correct me if any of that is wrong.)

Sometimes it bums me out, but I usually just sigh and chalk it up to the cyclical nature of humans.

Reply to this note

Please Login to reply.

Discussion

I guess that would depend on whether we create the “good times” such that our children live in them. It might be that the good times come after our children or even grandchildren are grown. Basically, how long to get to the “good times” from here? Not sure.

Are you familiar with the book The Fourth Turning? It poses the idea of a 80-ish year cycle that consists of 4 “phases” lasting roughly 20 years each: the High, Awakening, Unraveling and Crisis. We are currently nearing the climax of the Crisis, and so we will return to a High. According to the theory, we will enter into a roughly 20 year period of “High” (meaning upward trajectory and general prosperity) after we overcome the issues in the current Crisis.

Yeah, I’m familiar with it. The concept seems to make some sense but I’m not sure reality is that mechanistic. For example, in the Old Testament, the people of Israel turned to God, he blessed them, they became wealthy and prospered, they forgot God and became decadent, the kingdom is overrun by a foreign king and then the cycle repeats. However, this didn’t happen in regular 80 year cycles.

That’s a good point. The 80-year “saeculum” cycle from The Fourth Turning is just one cycle of many.

Ray Dalio claims we are at the end of the 250-year “empire” cycle, as well as the 100-year long-term debt cycle.

Maybe there is a 2-millennia Israel cycle as well. Or maybe there’s no Israel cycle at all.

Just some crude mechanisms for understanding the ebbs and flows of civilization.