Do you have a graph correlating M2 money supply and BTC price? That is interesting POV and your conclusion makes my uneducated brain hurt. If you don't have any reference material that is fine. But was curious how your hypothesis works if you follow it back over time.
Discussion
Based on my 4 year following of bitcoin, the M2 to bitcoin price correlation is definitely the most compeling one. I'll try to find some charts and get back to you.
It seems very compelling! Going back and applying a few rules of selling or buying BTC based on percent changes in M2 the correlation held consistent for most moves. But I probably would get wrecked still. Im interested in discussing what you have decided is a good percentage change, or rate of change, or other metric of the M2 to justify that a local top or bottom is in for BTC?
This is Raoul Pal's GMI chart from some while back.
Nik Bhatia's The Bitcoin Layer chart from late 2024
Rational Root's global liquidity vs. Bitcoin
crazy!
