The chance to win is not a probability of finding a 256 bit number it is a range less than that. Also, the chances of mining a block is deterministic based on the participant computational load. This means if you were the only miner for 3 weeks you would find a block every 10 minutes with a bitaxe. It feels like you don't actually understand the probabilities here.
Discussion
it feels like you think 5 less digits out of 77 counts for something
So, you still don't understand. If I was the only miner and my CPU was the device, I would still find a block ever 10 minutes after 3 weeks. Do you understand what that means? My CPU at 4 GHz does AT MAXIMUM 4 million calculations per core. That's at most 8 digits. How could I possibly win a block every 10 minutes with only 8 digits of computing power? Because the number range is variable compared to other participants. The more computational power the more chance. But even with less computational power, the chance is never zero.
To put it another way you don't need to be faster than a bear to evade one. You just are more likely to when running away in a group when others are slower than you.