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So dad, what did you do today in work?

I made graphs of Bitcoin data, that are not that insightful but maybe interesting to someone who is numerically inclined.

Summer doldrums in halving years were pretty low, ooo scary!! 😧

But, having gone into the halving at last cycle’s ath, the block reward is currently twice what it was in 2016 and 2020, this time is quite different.

If price dips, all those older miners with more expensive power will leave, hashrate will like drop, people may get scared (mining stocks will get decimated, hmmm, may prep for this), but “sell in May and go away”, not much will happen until likely Dumptember followed by Uptober. #bitcoin. Happy Friday Freaks!!!

Dug 6mo ago

Heard someone mention “well it’s summer now” and was reminded of the summer doldrums. Looking at the data and while some rather exciting early outliers rather muted, but how about looking as post halving years.

Thought this year could be similar to 2017, which we’re sort of diverged from but the summer data suggests we’re still tracking. It won’t repeat so don’t expect a dip a couple of weeks (80k?!? we can only hope) but then things start running into the end of August, 1.96X where started June, or $205k.

No leverage, no selling,just staying humble, stacking sats and enjoying some time with the family…….. #bitcoin

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Discussion

TheGrinder 6mo ago

good post. People need to understand that nobody is going to leave millions in unattended positions sitting on the exchanges while going on vacation. Brokers will level their books, degens will close their longs or shorts and so on. It's no different to online poker tanking, online sales tanking etc etc.

Dug 3mo ago

Gm nostriches, now the summer is done, interesting to take a look back on the full data. First off, very messy for all data, but 2025 not an outlier. Post halving summers interesting, on the low side but much less volatile than previous years (“dipping” to 108k!!). Finally compared to the average, came up to touch in early August, and after a new high backed off.

While getting two new all time highs during the summer is impressive, this summer doesn’t appear to be anything special, and sorry guys, no 2017 repeat. But from other data, we could just be building another base for another 10% leg up……. #bitcoin, stay humble freaks, and stack sats.

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