I’m thinking this bull run will look a lot like 2013 with at least two peaks. We will get a fast ascent to ~$150k and then drop back maybe 50%. Then, after a relatively short stabilization period (say, six months), the price will run to something like $500k or beyond.

The price will go higher than we think but ultimately I think the bull run will be over when we, the plebs, say it is. Supply will remain tight until our coins (held by strong hands) start flooding the market.

I suspect that the four year cycle will be over this epoch. We will now have faster cycles with greater volatility. The phase of diminishing returns will end as we start climbing the S-curve.

Those who think the four year cycle will play out in the same way could get rekt. They might think they can sell and buy back in. It’s not going to be that predictable.