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Paper bitcoin will eventually get short squeezed unless you end up with an FTX type scenario where paper bitcoin suppressed price then when they blew up they were bankrupt so couldn’t pay back the coins. MSTR and Coinbase would have to bankrupt and then we could see ppl facing criminal charges. So it is doubtful but possible. Otherwise when settlement comes and there isn’t enough coins then the Coinbase would have to buy coins to settle there debt and the added demand would squeeze the price up, kind of like the naked shorts in GameStop scenario, different but similar.

343PG 11mo ago

I agree with most of this in terms of what happens in the end when you issue paper Bitcoin, but it’s not quite addressing my point.

MSTR aren’t retail. They are likely using institutional grade multisig in segregated wallets that they can monitor, surely?! They can see their own Bitcoin and know it’s not being lent or rehypothecated elsewhere. But that doesn’t mean they’re going to reveal those addresses to the wider world, or indeed reveal any element is how they custody. If I was in Saylor’s shoes I’d do the same, and give our as little info on it as possible, unless my shareholders started overwhelmingly demanding it.

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Discussion

2Pac 11mo ago

Sure entirely possible, they keep 1:1 for institutional bitcoin and just have a float to cover withdrawals for their million other users and only keep a fractional reserve for those. Just speculating of course but would not surprise me. They just manage it as risk.

343PG 11mo ago

Yes this combination is possible. If you hold billions with anyone you’d expect some pretty high assurances, wouldn’t you. But I accept this is speculation, and admittedly as an MSTR shareholder I am trusting them to custody it safely.

2Pac 11mo ago

I don’t “like” coinbase but that said they have been around a long time without blowing up so they have been either keeping 1:1 or they have been managing their reserves conservatively enough to not blow up. Paper bitcoin at the end of the day is just unsecured debt.