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In terms of fiat-denominated price, I am very bullish long-term.

"never cheap enough to trigger a self-custody revolt, never euphoric enough to create escape velocity"

Governments love Bitcoin now (paper BTC) and need it to go up in an orderly manner.

When you see mainstream financial media marketing "the debasement trade" (gold, Bitcoin), it tells you everything you need to know about how 'scared' governments are of Bitcoin's MoE potential at present.

Tauri 3mo ago

Pay attention, plebs. Two conditions are required for the full TradFi capture of Bitcoin:

1. Self-custody must become a niche relic — still holding up for now, but shrinking fast as ETFs and custodians absorb flows.

2. MoE adoption must never gain traction — and there’s zero sign of that changing anytime soon.

Both are directly tethered to Bitcoin’s fiat price. The higher it floats within the paper rails, the weaker its sovereignty becomes.

Self custody ⬆️ = price ⬆️

Self custody ⬇️ = price ➡️ or ↗️ less

MoE ⬆️ = bigger [merchant] adoption = price ⬆️

MoE ⬇️ = lower [merchant] adoption = price ➡️ or ↗️ less

Self custody ⬆️ + MoE ⬆️ = escape velocity (we win)

Self custody ⬇️ + MoE ⬇️ = we’re cooked

The real frontier isn’t the price - it’s whether the self-custody minority can grow faster than the paper wrapper expands.

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