i think it really depends, mostly on the level of money printing, and the health of the economy

it kinda looks like a trend of declining growth into the 2021 but you have to bear in mind that while that was happening half the businesses were shut down, while at the same time the money printer was dialed up to 11

i'm of the opinion that it's going to do a sigma curve because this time around the economy is still fairly strong, businesses are not shut down, we have a few wars but mostly they are only causing a little bit of a problem with some food supply (ukraine and wheat and some other things) and the transit through the Suez is being choked, every other trade route is still functioning and there really hasn't been any major droughts or other big limiters on food markets

but this might be the middle of the curve, so it might be relatively flat, i don't think it's going to shrink as much as the last two progressions expanded, and inflation is high while business is not totally tanking... so i'm still betting on a 250-500k this cycle, 250 is flat (same as 2020) 500k is the start of a sigma curve second half

people are skeptical about hyperbitcoinization but when you realise that the average life expectancy of a fiat currency is 27 years, the euro is due to die by next cycle and the market cap of bitcoin and its penetration into retail marketplaces continues to progress, and when it is common that you can zap for your coffee or your beer we will see a second phase of the bitcoin valuation

that's my opinion anyway, but what that means in terms of real value - probably bitcoin vs bread is gonna stay flat, just that the fiat price of bread is going to moon