isps can see that you are connected to a vpn but not tor. imo it's the lesser of two flags that make a user stand out. vpn over clearnet is imo less of a flag than tor. however, the vpn provider must be trusted to actually not keep logs. in other words, it's a trust your vpn or trust your isp kinda situation. even if the vpn keeps logs, you are no worse off than connecting over tor without it. if the vpn does not, then you have increased your privacy and security