Bitcoin is more correlated with global liquidity than any other asset I track. Liquidity doesn't generally tell you the *magnitude* of what bitcoin's price will do, but it has a pretty strong push/pull on the *direction* that bitcoin's price goes in, all else being equal. It's not the only variable, but so far it has been a meaningful one. The mechanism is that it affects the rate at which new external capital tends to come into bitcoin.

Bitcoin supply halvings are an expression of its hardness. And the direction is always harder.

Global liquidity is an expression of fiat currency hardness. Usually it gets softer over time, but with brief periods of hardening. And fiat currency is much larger overall, so it affects a lot of asset prices including bitcoin. Due to bitcoin's inherent moneyness (lack of earnings or other dynamic factors) it tends to correlate to liquidity more tightly than other assets.